August 08, 2007
Anything on the Internet grows at a rate of about 3% per week is bound to morph into something different from its initial form and business model. It’s just a matter of time before Facebook and/or Myspace explodes, fragments, morphs into something new…. or becomes the next digital ghost town.
What will ultimately cause Facebook to experience its next evolution?
A change in Facebook’s advertising approach could trigger such a transformation. For example, apparent plans for Facebook to allow marketers to exploit user profile and other information could yield huge changes to the revenue game for advertisers and Facebook itself. This may, however, come at the expense of considerable user loyalty.
I personally don’t want to be pitched ads related to information about me harvested out of context. The particular Facebook groups I belong to or applications I have added are a reflection of my current mood and interests. These are not items that I want input to an algorithm that determines my most likely buying profile. The potential for gross errors in advertising good judgement could prove both hilarious and frightening. Where would it stop - pitching liquor to 12 year olds who boast about the good time they had at recent parties?
A big factor in Facebook’s appeal is its user base in the 8 - 25 year old demographic. There is an unwritten expectation by this group that Facebook is free-wheeling, non-commercial and non-’parent over the shoulder’ in nature. This is a fickle crowd! With numerous Facebook ‘wanna-bees’, jockeying for and keeping position at the top of the social media heap is a precarious struggle. It may only take a competitor with a better (i.e. new) user interface or the perception of a less commercialized platform to tip the scales from the popularity perspective. Facebook, as with any social network, could become a virtual ghost town in a matter of weeks or months.
Nothing is a given in the social network world! At a time when some proclaim Facebook to be the next big thing, applications like “Party Power” (which allows users to brag about their party prowess) do little to legitimize the platform as a useful cornerstone to society. Facebook’s current popularity as well as its form and function will be shaped by the complex interactions of a number of stakeholders and ultimately by Facebook users.
Facebook Inc. experienced a rapid outcry in early September 2006 when new privacy controls were unleashed without adequate testing and without focus group testing. It is noteworthy that a boycott promoted by the most upset users was just for one day, reinforcing how important Facebook is in some users’ lives. This is akin to saying “let’s show Facebook that we’re angry at their mistake but don’t go too far since Facebook is our source of all nourishment”. At last check, Facebook Inc. owns the platform! They invite people to use it but no guns are held to our heads to do so. An indication that a computing platform is achieving ubiquity is that its users believe it is theirs and that its creators had better not muck with it.
With Facebook popularity snowballing, it is good to remember that snowballs which roll over snow-laden ground pick up material and those that roll onto bare ground disappear quickly.
Popularity: 91% [?]
Hi Daled,
I don’t think Facebook will explode :).
But I do agree with you, that some ads may be intrusive..
But how would Facebook recoup the money they’ve used to build out the platform, pay their developers, and other staff, pay for utilities, etc., if they don’t allow more ads?
Ads would generate the necessary revenue for them to do this :).
Would you and other users be willing to pay for the service, so that they could recoup their costs?
Gillian,
Girl With a Purpose Blog